by NEW YORK — Juan Soto is on a calendar to decide where to sign before or during baseball’s winter games in Dallas, which run Dec. 8-12.
Soto met with the New York Yankees, New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays, a person familiar with the negotiations said, speaking to The Associated Press under spoke on condition of anonymity because details have not been announced.
Soto’s agent, Scott Boras, has asked teams to submit their initial offers by Thanksgiving, said a second person familiar with the discussions, also speaking on condition of anonymity because it hasn’t been announced.
Soto is the best player available among this year’s free agents. A four-time All-Star, Soto finished third in the AL MVP voting after hitting .288 with 41 home runs, 109 RBIs and 129 walks. He has a career average of .285 with 201 home runs, 592 RBIs and 769 walks over seven major league seasons.
Soto turned down a 15-year, $440 million offer from Washington in 2022, prompting the Nationals to trade him to San Diego, who then dealt him to the Yankees last December. Soto then teamed up with Aaron Judge to lead New York to the World Series, where the Yankees lost to the Dodgers.
In his speech to teams, Boras pointed out that Soto joined Mickey Mantle as the only players with seven RBIs in a World Series at age 21 or younger when he was with Washington, and that at age 20 he became the youngest player with five home runs in the postseason. Soto’s postseason OPS of .906 through age 25 surpassed Mantle (.900) and Derek Jeter (.852).
How much money will Soto receive?
Soto is likely to seek a record contract, surpassing Shohei Ohtani’s 10-year, $700 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers last December. This may not mean Soto receives more than $700 million. Since Ohtani’s deal included $680 million in deferred money payable through 2043, it can be valued by different methods.
For example, Ohtani’s contract is valued at $46.1 million per season ($461 million total) under MLB’s luxury tax system, which used a 4.43% discount rate. The players’ association uses a rate of 5 percent, which puts Ohtani’s contract at $43.8 million per year. For MLB’s regular payroll calculations, a 10% discount rate values Ohtani’s deal at just $28.2 million.
Which means if Soto gets even $462 million with no deferred payments, it’s safe to say his deal is the most valuable in MLB history.
In average annual value, pitchers Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are tied for second in baseball history with $43.33 million in contracts they signed with the New York Mets, deals that expired at the end of the 2024 season.
In terms of total value, Ohtani surpassed outfielder Mike Trout’s 12-year, $426.5 million contract with the Los Angeles Angels through 2030.
The longest contract in MLB is outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr.’s 14-year contract with the San Diego Padres through 2034.
How might MLB’s luxury tax factor into the team’s offers on Soto?
The Mets, Yankees, Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies are all likely to enter 2025 having paid the luxury tax for three straight years, which puts them at the highest rate: a 50% surtax on the payroll between $241 and $261 million, and 62% between $261 and $261 million. $281 million, 95% from $281 million to $301 million and 110% for each dollar above $301 million.
Toronto may have fallen below the initial tax threshold this year, pending final figures next month. If the Blue Jays fell, their rates next year would reset to 20%, 32%, 62.5% and 80% for all four thresholds.
Winter Meetings Would Be Perfect Time for Boras to Announce Recording Deal
If Soto reaches or announces a deal during the winter meetings at the Hilton Anatole in Dallas, it would be a familiar venue for a big Boras deal.
Alex Rodriguez’s record 10-year, $252 million contract with the Texas Rangers was announced in December 2000 at what was then called the Wyndham Anatole Hotel. A-Rod’s deal more than doubled the previous MLB record, an eight-year, $121 million contract between pitcher Mike Hampton and Colorado, announced two days earlier.
“In two days, we doubled a new highest salary,” said Sandy Alderson, then executive vice president of the commissioner’s office. “I don’t like the exponentiality of it.”
Rodriguez was 25 at the time of the Texas deal, a free agent before entering his likely prime, like Soto.
Besides Soto, what free agent hitters are available?
Third baseman Alex Bregman, first basemen Pete Alonso and Christian Walker and outfielders Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernández are among the important bats available to pursue and would likely interest some of the teams that fail to sign Soto.
Bregman and Alonso, like Soto, are represented by Boras.
