by Will Frankie Montas to be the 2025 version of Sean Manaea and/or Luis Severino? That’s obviously what the Mets are hoping for, but is it realistic to expect similar success on another short-term bull bet?
And is this a strategy that will define the Mets offseason, with David Stearns trusting your own instincts and the adjustments/improvements your pitching lab can make instead of investing in long-term deals for more expensive free agents?
I posed these questions to MLB scouts and team executives on Monday. And even if there was no clear consensus, a few dominant themes were retained:
1. It seemed easier to see the high-ceiling possibilities of Manaea and Severino, based on their resumes, early last year. Still, in what will be Montas’ second full season after shoulder surgery, there’s a case to be made that he’s more than just an innings eater.
2. For a team with championship expectations in 2025, the Mets would be leaving too much luck if they don’t add more accomplished pitchers to their starting rotation, whether that’s re-signing Manaea or shelling out a lot of money for one Corbin Burnes or a Max Fritor even exchange for Garrett Hook.
“It’s hard to do this every year, no matter how good your process is,” one team executive said, referring to the Mets’ success in 2024 with Manaea and Severino. “No one likes having to commit to long-term deals for pitchers because of the obvious risks, but that’s the cost of doing business unless you develop a ton of young pitchers.
“The Mets need more certainty in their rotation. I can see their thinking on Montas: he was better the last two months after he left for Milwaukee, and (Stearns) probably has some information on that, but that would be a stretch to say Montas. gives them a lot of certainty.”
Some notable points here:
Although the Mets appear to be making significant progress toward producing homegrown pitchers again, as I wrote in an article last season about notable changes in their drafting/development philosophy, they can’t count on that to 2025 after Christian Scott needed Tommy John surgery and other key prospects stuck at the Triple-A level, including Brandon Sproat And Tidwell Blade.
In addition, some scouts and executives emphasized that Kodai Senga has to be at least a bit of a question mark for 2025, given that he missed almost all of 2024, especially in terms of how many innings he can give the Mets.
All of this seems to highlight the need for more “certainty”, the word managers like to use, in the starting rotation which currently includes Senga, Montas, David Peterson, José Butto, Taylor MegillAnd Paul Blackburnwho will be returning from surgery to repair a cerebrospinal fluid leak.
One scout said: “Even if Montas succeeds, I would say they need two more quality starters, given their expectations for next season.”
Another added: “I understand if Stearns wants to stay away from long-term deals for pitchers – and maybe some of that depends on whether he gets them or not. (Juan) Soto. And I think a few of their prospects, like Sproat and Tidwell, have a chance to help them at some point next season. But they’re going to have to spend on pitching. I would view Montas as giving them a more solid playing field for the rotation. »
Others have mentioned the possibility of trading to the Chicago White Sox for Hook, the caveat being that scouts generally view the Mets farm system as having several quality prospects, but perhaps not the only indispensable player which could be necessary if bidding is strong for the Sox southpaw.
So ultimately, what about Montas?
I didn’t find the same enthusiasm I remember last year that scouts had for Manaea or Severino, but those I spoke to Monday offered Stearns a benefit of the doubt similar to what I feel from from Mets fans, based on his track record. to identify undervalued pitches.
Additionally, regarding the “information” the team manager referred to earlier, Stearns likely still has contact with the Brewers that may have influenced his confidence in Montas, based on how he launched in August and September, when its numbers were mostly better than them. were the first four months with the Cincinnati Reds.
Overall, his ERA in 11 starts with Milwaukee was 4.55, compared to 5.01 with the Reds, but aside from a late-season clunker against Arizona, Montas pitched to a 3.62 ERA for the Brewers.
Most notably, his strikeouts increased significantly – 11.0 per nine innings compared to 7.5 with the Reds – and he allowed fewer hits than innings pitched. His fastball velocity was up, averaging 96 mph, but his walk rate and home run rate were problematic, raising questions for scouts about his command.
“I think he got stronger and felt better trusting his shoulder as the season went on,” one scout said. “He still has good stuff. He has speed and his ball moves, and he has a good split at times, but he gave up a lot of homers on bad pitches, and the walks hurt him.
“The Mets probably see his command improving in his second year after shoulder surgery. And I’m sure they think they can do some things in their lab with pitching shapes and selection of ground that could make him an above-average starter again.”
To this point, by the ERA+ metric, which takes into account ballpark and other league factors, Montas has been a below-average starter in recent years. His last above-average season was in 2022 in Oakland, when his 116 ERA+ was above the league average of 100.
Earlier in his career, at age 26 in 2019, that ERA+ number was a dominant 164 over 16 starts.
“He’ll never be that guy again,” said another scout, “but I wouldn’t rule out getting back to his pre-injury form. Sometimes guys with good stuff can take a leap during this second year.”
Perhaps that’s why the Mets were willing to guarantee Montas $34 million over two years (Montas would have a player option after 2025). The AAV seems a bit high, but the short term makes the risk quite low.
Either way, a Manaea-style rise to dominance seems a bit far-fetched. Which brings us to the biggest question: Who else does Stearns have in mind for the 2025 starting rotation?
